April 23, 2024

MLB Best Bets, July 18: Nola, Sandoval, Manoah, Cubs and Mariners

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his favorite pitchers for Tuesday’s slate, including Alek Manoah, Patrick Sandoval, and Aaron Nola, as well as ML Parlay on the Cubs and Mariners.

Aaron Nola O/U 6.5 Strikeouts vs. Brewers

Only one pitcher recorded seven or more strikeouts against the Brewers in July (Rich Hill, 8 KS), but Milwaukee didn’t face many aces.

The best pitchers the Brewers have faced this month have been Marcus Stroman (6 Ks) or Justin Steele (5 Ks), so Nola will be a challenge.

Nola has 27 strikeouts to 23 hits over 102 plate appearances against current Brewers hitters for a 26.5 K% OBA and .245. Four different Milwaukee hitters have hit percentages above 25%, including Christian Yelich (25.8%), William Contreras (43.8%), Ramiel Tapia (30.8%) and Willy Adames (33.3%).

The Phillies’ ace has much better numbers at home (3.40 ERA, .200 OBA) and averages more than one strikeout per inning. Nola had 18 total strikeouts in his last two games against the Rays and Marlins, along with one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball.

I played the Over 6.5 Ks at -135 odd and would go out to -150 and Over 7.5 Ks for half a unit at +100 or better.

pick: Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts (1h)

Alek Manoah O/U 4.5 Strikeouts Vs. Padres

Alek Manoah made his long-awaited return after a month off and was dismissed after the worst first half of the season.

In Manoah’s return against the Tigers, the Blue Jays’ RHP went 6.0 innings with five hits allowed, one earned run, and eight strikeouts to zero walks.

While there is no comparison between Detroit’s lineup and San Diego’s, Manoah’s pitch selection and control looked night and day compared to his only start in June.

At the odds of +102, Manoah is valued at Over 4.5 Strikeouts. Manoah has never faced the Padres but has five different hitters on San Diego’s current roster.

Those five hitters, Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts, Gary Sanchez, Matt Carpenter, and Rouged Odur have combined for 10 strikeouts and six walks on a .125 batting average and 25.6 K%.

pick: Alek Manoah Over 4.5 Strikeouts (1h)

Patrick Sandoval O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Yankees

In two career starts against New York, Sandoval recorded five strikeouts and seven strikeouts over a combined 11.0 innings, eight walks, and seven earned runs.

The Yankees’ offense is coming out of a poor June, ranking lower by three points in runs scored (28th) and batting average (30th) and the beginning of July is a little better, but not by much. New York is 20th in batting average (.239), 16th in runs scored (57), and 104 strikeouts (16th) in July 14 games.

Only 17 LHPs have started against the Yankees this season and seven have recorded five or more strikeouts (41.1%), including Sandoval.

As the home pitcher, however, lefties are 5-4 against the Over (55.5%) against the Yankees. Sandoval pitched at Yankee Stadium in a 9-3 loss and hit the Over 4.5 Ks.

Sandoval has struck out 13 in his last two starts entering this game and has eight strikeouts in each of his two home starts. Give me the Over 4.5 strikeouts on Sandoval at -122 odds out to -150.

pick: Patrick Sandoval Over 4.5 Strikeouts (1h)

ML Parlay (+178)

Cubs ML (-175) vs. Nationals

ML Mariners (-130) vs Twins

Patrick Corbin is back after the Nationals’ impressive win over the Rangers before the All-Star Weekend. Corbin is throwing a 5.00 ERA or higher on the road, nightly, and over the last 15 and 30 days.

The Cubs and Nationals are two of the highest hitting teams to start July and with the pitching duel between Corbin and Jameson Taillon, I’ll take Taillon and the home Cubs as Taillon’s 7.41 home ERA goes back in a positive way.

For the Twins, Bailey Ober will make his third career start against the Mariners. Minnesota is 2-0 in previous starts, but Ober gave up four earned runs in 2022 and still recorded the win as the Twins posted 10 runs.

In the first meeting between Ober and Seattle, the Minnesota offense posted seven runs, so I can’t expect that kind of run support for the third time in a third year against Seattle, especially on the road.

I caught the Cubs and Mariners in ML Parlay at +178 odds.

pick: Cubs and Mariners ML Parlay (1h)

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