June 17, 2024

UFC Fight Night Predictions — Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura: Fight card, start time, odds, live stream

Tom Aspinall returns home to right a wrong almost a year on. Aspinall suffered a knee injury which ended at the O2 Arena in London last year. He looks to take out those frustrations on Marcin Tybura in the main event of UFC Fight Night 364 a day later.

Aspinall (12-3) was setting the heavyweight division on fire before his injury. The speedy, athletic heavyweight set the all-time record for the shortest total fight time over five UFC fights. Then it all came crashing down. Aspinall took a poor step and suffered a debilitating knee injury 15 seconds into a main event fight against Curtis Blaydes last year. Another big win would have put Aspinall on the shortlist of title contenders, but instead he spent the year recovering from surgery. If Aspinall’s fight was a daunting proposition before, his new motivation is terrifying.

“I think that year off helped me find what’s right for my body,” Aspinall said UFC.com. “It helped me make myself more of an athlete. Just going to the gym and smashing myself – four hours of training a day and then just the other 20 hours doing whatever I want – I’m not really like that anymore. I live like an athlete now. I make sure I get the right rest, the right recovery stuff. My diet is good. Everything is present now.”

Tybura (24-7) has quietly worked his way into relevance after it looked like his best days were behind him. Tybura was very exciting in his UFC debut but struggled with a higher level of competition. He started off pretty well but eventually found himself in a career-worst 1-5 stretch. Tybura was at a crossroads in his career after a 59-second loss to Augusto Sakai in 2019 but made the necessary adjustments to go on the best run of his UFC career.

“It was the darkest place of my life… It was a very difficult time for me,” Tybura told CBS Sports. “I was fighting with my thoughts about quitting the sport. Maybe I don’t belong there anymore. I had the feeling that I didn’t want to be a goalie just to keep a place in the rankings. I just wanted the feeling of fighting for something.

“There was something in my mind that wouldn’t let me quit. I was trying to figure out what was wrong. Sometimes you have to learn how to fight at such a high level in this sport.”

Check out the full interview with Marcin Tybura below.

The undercard sees the return of English favorite Molly McCann when she takes on Julija Stoliarenko in a women’s flyweight bout. McCann has had great success fighting close to home in London, scoring a pair of wins in 2022 against Hannah Goldy and Luana Carolina. She needs a similar result after suffering a setback against Erin Blanchfield in her last outing. In addition, Nathaniel Wood is scheduled to fight Andre Fili in a featherweight bout. And Paul Craig is set to make his middleweight debut when he takes on Andre Muniz.

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Below is the rest of the fight card for Saturday night with the latest odds from Caesars sports book before we get to predict and choose the main event.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

Tom Aspinall -450 Marcin Tybura +350 Heavy weight
Molly McCann -200 Julia Stoliarenko +170 Women’s flyweight
Nathaniel Wood -205 Second Poets +170 Featherweight
Andre Muniz -220 Paul Craig +180 Average weight
Ziam Fees -170 Jai Herbert +145 Light
Lerone Murphy -150 Josh Culibao +125 Featherweight

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: July 22 | Start time: 3 pm ET (main card)
Location: O2 Arena – London, England
TV channel: ESPN+

Foretelling

Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura: Aspinall is the new breed of heavyweight. Aspinall is a big, athletic man with a variety of skills. Tybura is somewhere between traditional and modern heavyweight. The Polish fighter has versatile tools, may not be as technically sound as his opponent, and seems to have leaned out in preparation for Saturday. Aspinall’s stat sheet is amazing. His offensive and defensive hitting percentages — strikes landed per minute, takedowns, and submission averages — all trump Tybura. The tape on Aspinall is admittedly short considering the brief nature of his fights, but what he has shown is impressive. Tybura has twice the professional experience and five times the average UFC fight time. Aspinall appears to be in great shape but has not been forced to show five rounds of stamina. It is vital that Tybura pulls his opponent into deep waters. It’s hard to get a full picture of Aspinall but what we’ve seen is amazing. The sky is the limit and a finish is coming if Aspinall has found a new level of commitment to his career. Aspinall by TKO2

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